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5.5.2024:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Sunday, May 5, 2024

By Xpressbet

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5.5.2024:

Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know - Santa Anita | Sunday, May 5, 2024

By Jeff Siegel

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. * The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. * * Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play. View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+ Main Ticket: 1-Marsh Creek Backups/savers: 5-Highly Desirable; 7-Abitmischievous. Forecast: Marsh Creek has done some very good work leading up to his racing debut, though it can’t be said he’s bred for grass. Nonetheless, here he is, in a turf sprint from the rail, in a field that really didn’t come up strong. If this grandson of the top class mare Indian Blessing can run, he can run, regardless of the surface, and with the barn’s “go-to” jockey J. Hernandez taking the call this sophomore son of Arrogate looks like a very live item. We suspect that if he breaks cleanly, he’ll be hard to beat. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+ Main Ticket: 4-Slew’s Joy; 5-Established. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Slew’s Joy is a first-off-the-claim play for M. Glatt (24% with this angle) and also is making his first start as a gelding. Taken for $16,000 and returning for $10,000, the son of Slew’s Tiznow doesn’t have a healthy pattern, but on the barn switch alone probably deserves top billing in a weak affair. Established is comfortably drawn outside, drops to his lowest level ever, and is a three time winner over the local dirt track. Low percentage connections notwithstanding, the veteran gelding is the one to fear most. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 3: Post: 2:00 ET Grade: B- Main Ticket: 2-All That Glory; 7-Tees Touch (GB); 5-Cathal (Ire). Backups/savers: none. Forecast: All That Glory, a solid runner-up over this course and distance in a similar maiden grass dash for older horses, probably won’t have to improve much at all to graduate today. The T. Yakteen-trained colt just earned a career top speed figure that points him out as strictly the one to beat. A steady, strong work tab since raced is another plus. Tees Touch (GB) and Cathal (Ire) are Irish invaders making their U.S. debuts after displaying some promise during their juvenile campaigns. The former, a first time gelding trained by P. D’Amato, was 40-1 in his only start but ran quite well to be second before being privately purchased and imported. The latter, a good runner-up in a 14 runner affair while almost four lengths clear of the rest in a representative race at Dundalk in November, should be fit enough for J. Sadler to at least give a good account of himself. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+ Main Ticket: 2-Rhino Backups/savers: 6-Mystic Spirit. Forecast: Rhino is far from trustworthy but he’s back on dirt today and may appreciate the surface switch. Beaten as the favorite in both of his recent races following a layoff without no visible excuses, the son of Texas Ryano projects as the logical pacesetter and may be able to stay the course in a field lacking in late speed. Though a likely winner, he offers no value at 8/5 on the morning line. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B Main Ticket: 4-Halfway Line (GB); 7-Mystification. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Here’s a challenging turf miler for first level allowance older horses. Use as many as your budget allows. Halfway Line (GB) hasn’t been particularly impressive in his a.m. breezes since arriving from France, but he’s form overseas is pretty good, so if he brings his best stuff in his U. S. debut he should be very competitive. He gets Lasix and A. Fresu and figures to be doing his best work late. Mystification is lightly raced with room to improve and finished a solid third under these conditions last month after making the pace under pressure throughout. His only win as accomplished as the controlling speed, so we suspect that strategy will be employed again today. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 6: Post: 3:35 ET Grade: B+ Main Ticket: 5-Show Card; 1-Scary Fast Ride. Backups/savers: Forecast: Show Card looks like a short price in this first level allowance sprint. She’s drawn cozily outside, earned a career top speed figure in her recent maiden score, and likely will continue to improve as she gains added experience for B. Baffert. Scary Fast Ride returns to the main track after failing to negotiate the Hillside Course in her most recent outing. With two wins and a second in three career outings over the local main dirt track, the S. McCarthy-trained mare seems likely to return to her best form today. She’s not a particularly quick type leaving the gate, though, so she’ll have to avoid trouble from her rail draw. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 7: Post: 4:10 PT Grade: B+ Main Ticket: 3-Alluring Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Alluring had a tough beat in a similar Hillside sprint for sophomore fillies last month but we’re expecting the talented sprinter to break through today in this year’s edition of the Senorita S.-G3. She employs an effective second flight, stalking style, retains regular pilot U. Rispoli, and shows speed figures that are gradually rising. The R. Mandella-trained daughter of Ghostzapper is ready for a stakes win, and at 3-1 on the morning line offers a reasonable gamble and an attractive rolling exotic single. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 8: Post: 4:40 ET Grade: C+ Main ticket: Bag’s Gold; 5-Crowining Gold Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Bag’s Gold has lacked punch when it’s been needed the most in recent races, so we’re not sure he can be counted on but on pure form the Vronsky gelding should be able to handle this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming assignment. His recent numbers have been solid, so we’ll put him on top but with trepidation. Crowning Gold is a strong fit at this level and is re-equipped with blinkers, so we’ll toss him in as well. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 9: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: B Main ticket: 7-Big Summer; 10-Just Nails. Backups/savers: 5-Excelia (Ire). Forecast: Big Summer usually prefers to finish second or third (10 times) rather than win (four times), but this is a field the veteran mare can beat with one of her better efforts if she’s ready in her comeback. The barn has been ice cold all year and its record with layoff runners is weak, so there are question marks. Still, the daughter of Mr. Big is a three time winner over the local turf course and her work tab should have her plenty fit. Just Nails shows the route-to-sprint angle that always catches the eye and a repeat of her race before last – she was beaten a nose at this distance over the flat course while earning a career top number – makes here strictly the one to beat. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 10: Post: 5:40 PT Grade: B Main ticket: 5-Lincoln Hawk (Ire) ; 9-City Exile (GB). Backups/savers: 6-Reckless Spirit.; 1-Barely Functional. Forecast: Lincoln Hawk (Ire) was badly victimized by the race shape (slow early, fast late) and could make no impression when unplaced in a similar spot over 10 furlongs last time out. This shortening to a mile should help produced more pace, so this Irish-bred gelding has a chance to improve big time at a good price (he’s 8-1 on the morning line). City Exile (GB), freshened since early February, likes to lag and then blast home and like our top pick can be dangerous if he can get some help up front.

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5.5.2024:

Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 Selections: Nicoletti & Siegel | Sunday, May 5, 2024

By Xpressbet

Sunday’s Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 selections are in for Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita. The $1 minimum wager has a low 15% takeout and we’ve got the selections of veteran local handicappers Ron Nicoletti at GP and Jeff Siegel at SA. Get 10X Wager Rewards Points when you bet the Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Gulfstream Race 8 1-Unrelentless 5-Blueish 3-Jayana Santa Anita Race 3 2-All That Glory 7-Tees Touch (GB) 5-Cathal (Ire) Gulfstream Race 9 2-British Empress 4-Eastern Empress 3-Street View Santa Anita Race 5 4-Halfway Line (GB) 7-Mystification. Santa Anita Race 7 3-Alluring

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5.5.2024:

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis | Sunday, May 5, 2024

By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park has a 15-race card and the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track. Race 11 (9:40 PM EST) 1-One Last Laugh (5-1)-Outraced his odds last time versus this kind from the rail. Hunter Meyers needs to put this 7-year-old in a position to win and shouldn't be out of place tonight. 4-Louis The Horse N (5-1)-Aaron Merriman worked a smooth trip last week and won by open lengths. Steps-up but does good work at Nfld (6-3-2-0) and should offer a square price. 5-Mull Of Kintyre (7/2)-Has been in the hunt at this level and Justin Irvine can get the lead off the gate. Probably has the best gate speed and that tactical advantage could be the winning difference. Race 12 (10:02 PM EST) 1-Lake Charles (3-1)-Tries hard and could beat this scattered crew but will need some hot fractions. Pretty much everyone moves up and it is not an easy race to read. This veteran can roll late and Irvine could have in play. 2-Cowboy Cool (4-1)-The Burke-Wrenn combo is tough to ignore as they click for 33% winners. Hard to leave off the ticket and should be in the hunt but doesn't make a habit of winning here (12-1-2-3). 7-Nvrfearlloydishere (5-1)-Bumps up after taking advantage of a pocket ride to take a picture. Beat Open company at Nfld in March and could be heard from with the right trip. Looking for a price and may be overlooked. Race 13 (10:24 PM EST) 2-Ego Trippin (2-1)-Left to get a close up seat last time and took the lead early on. But was caught by the the morning line chalk #1 who came off cover to win its 2nd straight. Will look for a different outcome this time as Aaron Merriman grabs the lines. 5-Rock The Hill (5/2)-Will look to fade #1 the 9/5 chalk and get more value. Irvine should have the pedal down and has the gate speed to get the top or the pocket. The Roegner-Irvine combo has clicked for 32% winners over the last 30 days. Race 14 (10:46 PM EST) 1-Sawyer's Desire (9/5)-Makes the 2nd start off the bench and could be ready to roll with the inside draw. The short price isn't easy to take. But this veteran is like most in the field, a win at this level hasn't happened for a while. But back class could show tonight. 5-White Hair Rocks (7/2)-Beat this kind from the rail 2 back. Has enough gate speed to get a close-up seat and could be a clean trip away from another picture. $1.00 Late Pick 4 1,4,5/1,2,7/2,5/1,5 Total Bet=$36 Check me out on Twitter!

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5.4.2024:

Get All of Our Kentucky Derby Day Coverage Here

By Xpressbet

Our 1/ST team has been working hard to bring you the very best coverage of horse racing's biggest event, the Kentucky Derby. Here's an easy guide of links to navigate you through Oaks and Derby Days. Saturday ‍ ‍1/ST Kentucky Derby Wager Guide (1/ST BET team coverage, Eddie Olczyk / Jeff Siegel / Jeremy Plonk Derby betting strategies)‍ Kentucky Derby Contender Preview Videos (Eddie Olczyk)‍ Betting the Kentucky Derby Superfecta (Scott Shapiro)‍ Churchill Downs Full-Card Analysis & Picks (Jeff Siegel)‍ Kentucky Derby Analysis & Picks (Jon White)‍ Race of the Week Picks & Analysis: Turf Classic at Churchill (Jeremy Plonk)‍ Kentucky Derby Day Vulnerable Favorites (Scott Shapiro)‍ It’s Official Podcast: Kentucky Derby Handicapping Hot Topics (Jeff Siegel, Jeremy Plonk)‍ 1/ST Call Podcast: Kentucky Oaks, Derby & Undercard Analysis (Jeff Siegel, Jeremy Plonk)‍ Preakness Future Wager: Meet the Contenders (1/ST BET)‍ Preakness Future Wager: Selections (Scott Shapiro)

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5.4.2024:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Saturday, May 4, 2024

By Xpressbet

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5.4.2024:

Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know + Prime Plays Video - Santa Anita | Saturday, May 4, 2024

By Jeff Siegel

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. * The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. * * Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play. View Jeff Siegel's Prime Plays Video ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B Main Ticket: 1-Scatify; 3-Island Cruiser. Backups/savers: none Forecast: The Sadler barn holds the aces with Scatify arguably the best of the speed types and Island Cruiser (assuming he’s ridden properly) the most dangerous of the closers. The former has no option but to be sent from the rail and based on our pace projection should be the controlling speed. ‘Cruiser’s best race was when he was held up early and allowed to blast home. Hope they go back to that strategy today. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 2: Post: 1:03 PT Grade: B+ Main Ticket: 3-Cowboy Mike. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Cowboy Mike is starting to get good for Baffert and seems well-placed to extend his winning streak to three. Fresh from earning a career top number against a lesser allowance field in late March, the Smiling Tiger gelding employs an effective stalking style combined with a good late kick and should be able to settle into an ideal early position and have every chance from there. However, at 6/5 on the morning line he won’t be offering much wagering value. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 3: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: C Main Ticket: 5-Queen’s Code; 1-Pioneer Prince. Backups/savers: 2-Hawker. Forecast: There are several races on today’s card that we really won’t want to get too involved with. This is one of them. Queen’s Code is the second choice at on the morning line t 5/2 behind Pioneer Prince (8/5) and they could finished one-two in either order. Quite frankly, we don’t trust either one, but in a shallow field the race could easily be dominated by the chalk. ‘Code comes from a cold barn and has so far preferred to finish second (five times) rather than first (once), but he had a right to be a short horse last time out when returning off a long layoff and the stable’s second-off-the-bench stats are reasonably solid. ‘Prince is slow on numbers (they’re shrinking) but he adds blinkers and could improve. Tread lightly here. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 4: Post: 2:15 PT Grade: C+ Main Ticket: 1-Antonsen Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Antonsen has burned money in his last pair but gets another chance at the same maiden $50,000 level and should graduate eventually, maybe even today. He’s got only one way to go from the rail, on the front end for as far as he can. He really should be able to outrun this modest group, but at 6/5 on the morning line it’s almost not worth the bother. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 5: Post: 2:46 PT Grade: B+ Main Ticket: 1-Notime for Squalls Backups/savers: 6-Ok Rose; 8-Orderly Transition (GB). Forecast: There are several reasons for Notime for Squalls to step forward in this maiden $50,000 turf miler for fillies and mares. This will be her first try in a seller, her first around two turns (with the prerequisite two recent sprints to have her sharp), the benefit of the rail draw which ensures a ground-saving trip, and a recent training track breeze that caught the eye. She’s still trying to find her proper level, but if she improves at all, she should fit nicely against this group. In a race that has several contenders with a winning chance, let’s try a gamble on this M. Glatt-trained filly with the expectation that she’ll enjoy at this longer trip. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 6: Post: 3:25 ET Grade: C+ Main Ticket: Dancing Dana 2-Woodbine Way; 6-Wrong Turn Cupid. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Dancing Dana is cozily drawn outside and projects to be on the lead or pressing the pace without undue pressure. She has back numbers than can win and has hit the board in five of seven career starts over the local main track. Woodbine Way drops to her lowest level, shows the popular blinkers off angle, tries the main track, and is long overdue for a win. The S. Miyadi-trained mare has never won on dirt but against this group the surface may not matter much. Wrong Turn Cupid has solid form in mixed breed races at Los Alamitos that chart okay in this league. She actually may be the most dependable of the lot. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 7: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B- Main Ticket: 5-Planetario (Brz); 6-War At Sea; 3-Gold Phoenix. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: This group knows each other well. Whose turn will it be today? Planetario (Brz) chased home Missed the Cut in his last pair but won’t have that one to worry about today. This mile and one quarter distance is his favorite trip, so we’re expecting the South American import to be along in time. War At Sea is racing in sharp form and shows three wins over the local turf track. The son of War Front has never been this far but there’s no reason he won’t handle 10 furlongs. Gold Phoenix was given a run in his seasonal bow when unplaced in the American S.-G3 last month and should get serious today. If he still has it, the six year old gelding will be running on late. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: C+ Main ticket: 6-War On the West; 3-Dance Man; 4-Last Call Paul. Backups/savers: none. Forecast: War On the West is a fresh face in a soft state-bred maiden claiming abbreviated sprint. He’s trained like he has some talent and a little will go a long way against this group, so let’s take a shot in a wide open fray. Dance Man appears to be the best of the known element, for whatever that’s worth. He’s got early speed and should stick better at this distance against this group. Last Call Paul has hit the board in half of his 10 career starts and should be a threat with anything close to his best race, according to his numbers. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 9: Post: 5:43 PT Grade: B+ Main ticket: 4-Hurricane Way Backups/savers: 10-British Isles; 12-Indespensable. Forecast: Hurricane Way was ignored on the tote in his debut (36-1) but really caught the eye with flying home to miss by a nose before galloping out far in front in an extended maiden sprint over the local lawn last month. The jump to a mile and one-eighth is a challenging one, even though he’s bred to run this far, but in a race where most of these have middling form let’s try the fresh face with arguably the most upside at 6-1 on the morning line. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 10: Post: 6:13 PT Grade: B- Main ticket: 7-Damazio; 6-The Big Cheeseola; 4-Mobe Town. Backups/savers: none Forecast: We’ll triple this modest $16,000 restricted (nw-2) claiming sprint and hope that at least one of them fires. Damazio faced much tougher rivals in a race that he surely needed off a long layoff in late March and seems sure to benefit from that tightener today. The J. Mullins-trained gelding shows a strong, healthy series of workouts in the interim and should improve enough to pose a serious threat at 7/2 on the morning line. The Big Cheeseola graduated in a soft maiden $50,000 dash last month with a respectable figure and is realistically spotted today in his first race facing winners. If he can turn in two alike, he’ll be right there. Mobe Town is another class dropper that has numbers that make him a major player against this group. He’ll be part of the pace throughout. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 11: Post: 6:43 PT Grade: C+ Main ticket: 9-Thrumps Dream (Ire); 7-Hennys Crazy Train; 4-Madiha Backups/savers: none. Forecast: Here’s a grass grab bag for older fillies and mares that has several possibilities. We’ll try to get by using just three, but you should include as many as your budget allows. Thrumps Dream (Ire) just won at this level, was claimed for $50,000, and tries for a repeat for new trainer S. Knapp. She retains J. Hernandez and will stretch out to nine furlongs for the first time, but with three wins over the local lawn she looks formidable once again. Hennys Crazy Train, in the frame in each of her last six starts, is another trying a mile and one-eighth for the first time. She’ll be on or near what projects to be a moderate pace throughout, so she will have every chance to get the trip. Madiha, first or second in seven of 14 outings over the Santa Anita lawn, figures to at least get a piece of it again today.

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5.4.2024:

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis | Saturday, May 4, 2024

By Al Cimaglia

Hoosier Park has a 12-race card. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track. Race 9 (8:08 PM EST) 1-Toy's For You (5-1)-Has trouble finishing miles but is in a good spot to get an efficient trip. Fits and the Plano trainee could get a suck-around trip and post the 1st win of the meet. 2-Niko Man (4-1)-Will need its best at this class but Niko likes to win. Has taken pictures in 8 of 18 starts and has captured 4 of 11 races here. John De Long will have the Rucker trainee racing near the top of the stack. 8-Swingforthefences (6-1)-Has drawn post 8 in 2 of the last 3 races and both times was used early to get a good seat. Beat the class below 3 races back. Comes back in sequence tonight and will look for a strong bounce back effort at a price. Race 10 (8:30 PM EST) 4-Elegant A (7/2)-Has found the going tough since arriving from MVR 3 races back. Gets both post and class relief here. May have meet a beatable field. 6-JK'S Shining Star (8-1)-Went the back-half in 55.1 last time but was too far back. Marvin Luna has had success with the mare when getting a good early seat. Will look for an aggressive drive and the price is right to take a swing. 9-Some Big Dream (4-1)-Looked good winning in the 2nd start of the season. Regular driver Joey Putnam returns but could be overlooked with this post draw. Does well at HoP (8-6-0-1) and this mare lands in a field with mostly 4-year-olds like her. Race 11 (8:52 PM EST) 4-Brookview Bolt (6-1)-The price is right, but not sure what to expect. Can dance with this kind winning on 4-6, but then broke stride the next week from the 8-hole. Put in a flat line on 4-20 and should be in the hunt at a price if dialed on high. 7-Dover In Motion (6/5)-Macomber trainee wins on smaller ovals as well as here. Has taken pictures in 19 of 38 lifetime and had an 8-race winning streak before being out away. Qualified nicely on 4-27 and this race will probably need to go through the classy 5-year-old. Race 12 (9:14 PM EST) 4-Feetmadefordancin(6-1)-Joel Smith 4-year-old is 0-6 on the year and its form has been dull. Should fit and gets a new set of hands in Mike Oosting. Will look to an old Illinois connection to provide a spark at a healthy price. 6-Splash Of Pink (7/2)-Mohawk shipper put in a needed start here on 4-27. This is a big track horse that has beaten better and is a main threat if brings a top try. 0.50 Late Pick 4 1,2,8/4,6,9/4,7/4,6 Total Bet=$18 Check me out on Twitter!

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